Is "Tenet" a Flop? Depends How Your Country Is Handling COVID

Also: What even is a flop in the year 2020?

It goes without saying that the financial success of Christopher Nolan’s backwards-action film Tenet is probably priority #9,012 in our coronavirus-afflicted world right now.

It’s not even a top priority for star Robert Pattinson, who, um, has enough on his plate at the moment.

But given the way in which cinemas around the world have been shuttered for months, holding out hope and reopening for this big first blockbuster out the gate, a lot has been riding on Tenet, and that includes the future viability of cinemagoing in our new mask-wearin’, social-distancin’ age.

So, for those with an interest in one day returning to packed theatres or watching a film with anyone other than your parents, partner or pet, we have good news to share… and some bad news too.

Movie Review:

Movie Review: Tenet Is Christopher Nolan’s Backwards Bond Movie

First, the good news: Tenet has cracked $US200 million worldwide, putting it on a hopeful track to eventually make back its budget of $US200 million and whatever else was spent on promotion (Yahoo estimates it needs to break $US450 million). Tenet has even grossed $US50 million in China, where 90 per cent of cinemas are taking business, and though that’s not a huge figure, it’s likely to outgross Mulan there, a film Disney made specifically and controversially to court the Chinese market. (Mulan is on Disney+ locally.)

By definition, this means Tenet is not a flop. Numbers are highest in nations where cinemas are open (obviously) and the pandemic is under control, yet even in those nations, theatres have reduced capacity, making its showing more impressive. That includes Australia, where Tenet has so far grossed $AUD6.7 million, despite cinemas in Victoria still being closed. It is easily the highest grossing release here since the pandemic struck, and with little competition on the horizon, it could eke its way to a respectable gross down under.

But now, the bad: in the United States, where coronavirus still runs rampant and COVID-19 deaths are about to top 200,000, Tenet has only grossed $US29.5 million over two weeks (and that includes Canadian grosses). To clarify how much the landscape has shifted since January, the widely-panned disappointment Dolittle made that much money in its first five days. Times, truly, have changed.

The big caveat here should be that absolutely any money earned by a movie during this unprecedented period is a win, given how the arts industry—both for the cinematic and live scenes—has been flailing of late. And you also have to factor in that cinemas in the two biggest American markets, New York and Los Angeles, are completely closed, meaning this was never going to be a film that opened huge.

But Warner Bros. in the United States is likely a little bit embarrassed about the figures their epic is bringing in domestically, as they’re refusing to share daily box office data (a pre-COVID norm) to maintain control over the narrative around the movie. It’s also reportedly annoying other distributors, who want to understand how Tenet is faring—like the canary in the coalmine—before deciding whether or not they should deliver their films to American cinemas. You have to imagine that WB’s decision to push Wonder Woman 1984 to December is the result of Tenet's run so far.

If there’s one benefit to this situation for Nolan, it’s that all discussion around the movie’s box office is tied specifically to the circumstances of its release, and has little to do with the critical reception (or sound mix!). Though word of mouth may be a factor in its success (or lack thereof), there are too many other variables to consider that are likely having a bigger impact on its numbers.

Anyway: Though it's unlikely the studio will lose money on Tenet in the long run, American cinemas may be in more trouble than theatres elsewhere in the world because of the pressure to open for Tenet, driven by Nolan's demand. As Indiewire notes, theatre chains had a stronger hand negotiating their rent if they remain closed, but since they’re back open, "they owe, and now they face weeks of operating at a significant loss." Had Tenet hit big—regardless of the health implications—other studios and WB themselves would have been heartened to roll out more of their big films. Instead, the next planned big releases—Wonder Woman 1984 and Universal’s Candyman—have been delayed, meaning cinemas have little else but Tenet to tout (though Sony will open The Broken Hearts Gallery this week, and The New Mutants and Unhinged are still screening for audiences eager to see something on the big screen). This sequence of events could result in more pictures getting sold off to streaming services, bypassing cinemas altogether, or opening first in international markets, making piracy a potential issue for impatient Americans.

Also not helping matters is America entering flu season, with Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases advising the country to "hunker down and get through this fall and winter". 

Remember: Nothing is more important that people practicing smart, safe behaviour and helping stop the spread of COVID-19... and one's decision to go see Tenet or any film in cinemas should be based on that first and foremost. But there’s another benefit to being responsible, as evidenced by nations that have the disease (mostly, or as well as anyone can) under control: it can lead to a viable model for cinema moviegoing in the long term. America, it seems, isn’t there yet.

Header Image: Warner Bros.