Now What? Sorting Through The Rubble Of This Weekend’s Nutty Election

So…

There was an election on Saturday, and rather than it bringing to an end eight arduous weeks of campaigning, its indecisive outcome seems likely to result in a further month of hand-wringing, backroom negotiating and public disorder.

For those of you who voted for the first time this federal election, welcome to Australian politics.

The Liberal-National Coalition, led by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, saw something akin to voter revolt, with the Government suffering a 2.8 per cent swing against it. Still, it seems likely they’ll hold onto power, even if that means partnering up with some of the eclectic independents newly-elected to Parliament - as well as some old hats (Hello, Bob Katter!) - to form a minority government.

.@TurnbullMalcolm 'quietly confident' of retaining government https://t.co/EWHeuGNbNx

— ABC News (@abcnews) July 3, 2016

Turnbull said during his “victory” speech, late on election night, he is “confident” of forming a majority government, but the final numbers won’t reveal themselves for quite some time. (The Australian Electoral Commission has cautioned that they could take up to a month to finish the official count.)

Labor, led by Opposition Leader (and sideways sanga-muncher) Bill Shorten, conversely celebrated a swing towards them, following their disastrous showing in 2013 (when Liberal leader Tony Abbott helped sweep out Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, who had, weeks earlier, swept away colleague Julia Gillard, who, in 2010, swept away then-PM Kevin Rudd; it was a whole thing).

.@billshortenmp: Malcolm Turnbull's agenda the clear loser #ausvotes https://t.co/pbCgBxsvFQ

— ABC News (@abcnews) July 3, 2016

Yes, fine, swings in both directions, but why don’t we have a winner yet?

Okay, as of Monday morning, the Coalition holds 67 seats in the House of Representatives (down from 90). Labor similarly holds 67 (up from 55). Five have gone to independents and minor parties, leaving 11 seats in doubt. Neither the Coalition nor Labor has enough seats right now to form a majority government (at least 76 would be required for that, out of a possible 150), and both have pledged to not form a minority government with either the elected independents or the Greens.

That said, the Coalition, the only party likely able to manage such a thing, may be feeling different in the cold light of day, with the Greens ready to negotiate and both Nick Xenophon and Bob Katter already writing up wishlists for their potential suitors.

However, independents Andrew Wilkie and Cathy McGowan have ruled out partnering with any party for a minority government.

If a minority government can’t be formed, and if the AEC cannot declare the Coalition a majority government, we will face a hung parliament.

A hung parliament?

Yes, a hung parliament. This is when neither party – nor grouping/ coalition/ alliance of parties – can claim a majority of seats in the House of Representatives. To form a minority government, the Coalition - or Labor – would need to convince enough independents to vote alongside them, helping them reach the magic number of 76.

We saw this happen back in 2010, when Julia Gillard’s Labor formed a minority government after a narrow victory over the Abbott-led Coalition.

If Turnbull fails to bring the independents over to his side, the Governor-General might still test the waters to see the current PM can govern a divided House. If not, Parliament might be dissolved – again – and Australia could return to the polls.

So, this isn’t over?

Far from it.

Seriously though, the one thing I wanted most from this election was for it to be over and we couldn't even get that right .

— Adam Liaw (@adamliaw) July 3, 2016

Turnbull and Shorten have dismissed a “return to the polls”, though they’re beholden to the ultimate success – or failure – of this reconfigured chessboard (which includes a “motley” Senate, more varied and “difficult” than the last, in the SMH's words).

It’s also unclear what this result means for the Government’s plans for a marriage equality plebiscite, or any of its other proposals over the next three years. The current configuration is not exactly "Coalition-friendly".

The shemozzle has gave newspaper subeditors around the country an opportunity to produce headlines with variation on the phrase ‘knife's edge’, describing not just the outcome of Saturday’s poll but also Turnbull’s grasp of the Liberal leadership.

At least the PM has closed his campaign with yet another Veep reference, after he famously cribbed his “continuity and change” tagline from the HBO comedy. On the show’s last season, President Selina Meyer was unable to secure a decisive victory during her own election. As those who saw the season finale already know, things don’t often end well for leaders who face a national revolt.

Anything else we need to know?

Linda Burney became the first Indigenous woman to be elected to the House of Representative after claiming the Sydney seat of Barton for Labor. That's good!

Pauline Hanson has also been returned to the Senate under the banner of her One Nation Party (capitalising on anti-Islam sentiment). That's less good. (Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce has already decried her "belligerent, xenophobic" politics.)

Last but not least, broadcaster Derryn Hinch enjoyed a successful run as founder of the anti-paedophile Justice Party over the weekend. He’s declared himself the “oldest man” in the Senate. Saturday apparently marked his first time voting.

Photo: Instagram.