Marriage Equality in Australia Could Be a Thing Next Week If All These Things Fall Into Place

It's been a key election issue for the past few governments and yet still, nothing has changed.

But things could change next week after reports that a Private Member's Bill might be introduced which has the (slight) possibility of getting passed.

Okay, let's try to break this down because it's more baffling than a Game of Thrones family tree.

Firstly, a Private Member's Bill (PMB) is essentially just a bill (a proposed law) that isn't put forward on behalf of the executives of a party. This means backbenchers (Members of Parliament who don't have portfolios/extra duties) can introduce whatever they like in the House of Representatives.

Once a PMB is introduced, the member can explain it a bit and then it's usually shelved for discussion at a later time so everyone can have a big ol' think about it. For these bills to be debated in the House, however, a government-controlled Selection Committee must select them. The current government's policy is to put forward a plebiscite, and it has repeatedly rejected the idea that a free vote should be put to Parliament instead. This mean's the Selection Committee will repeatedly reject the PMB.

But, alas! There's a way. Herald Sun is reporting that a PMB will be introduced next week when Parliament goes back after the winter break. Many pro-marriage equality Liberal MPs spoke in favour of allowing a free vote yesterday, including MP Trevor Evans, who told The Australian that there were a "number of ways to achieve reform."

"I am talking with colleagues, quite a number of colleagues, about different options that sit in front of us at the moment," he said, which sounds a lot like doublespeak for scheming.

If Evans does introduce a PMB to the government's party room, this could force the Turnbull Government to ditch the plebiscite policy due to the risk that many pro-marriage equality MPs in his party could cross the floor and vote with a Labor-Green coalition on the issue (meaning there's a very good chance it would get passed).

The Turnbull Government's Selection Committee could also shelve the PMB. If this happens and there's enough support in the House (76 votes), a combination of Labor, Greens, Independents and pro-marriage equality Liberals could challenge the Selection Committee with a standing order and force a vote which would then go on to the Senate.

If it gets to the Senate, there's a good chance that it would be passed into law due to Senate's composition.

Seems pretty easy, right? Lots of things built on "good chances" would have to fall in place.

It should be noted that if the PMB gets voted on and passes on to the Senate, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull's position could be shaky. The conservative faction of the Liberal Party is allegedly making plans to trigger a leadership spill, which might mean that current Immigration Minister, Peter Dutton, could become their first pick as the leader.

It's all just informed speculation for now, but if the speculations are right, 2017 could go down as the year that Australia finally joined the rest of the Western world in terms of marriage equality.

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