Donald Trump Has Announced His Candidacy For The 2024 Presidential Election. How Likely Is A Second Term?
In a heavily predicted move, Former US President Donald Trump has announced he’ll be running for President in the 2024 election.
At an event at his Mar-A-Lago lodge in Florida, he announced he wants to be the 47th President of The United States, just 20 months after moving out of the White House as the 45th President.
“In order to make America great and glorious again, I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States,” he said.
“This will not be my campaign, this will be our campaign, together.”
Trump had been hinting at the move for a while, especially after a tumultuous year, including investigations into the January 6 Capitol Riot, FBI raids on his home and a less-than-ideal midterm election for the Republicans.
The US Constitution allows a President to sit for two four-year terms before retiring, but Trump has so far only served one term, meaning he still has another potential four years left.
The majority of Presidents who win two terms serve both consecutively, but Trump wouldn’t be the first to serve two non-consecutive terms.
Back in the late 19th century, Grover Cleveland served as the 22nd and 24th President, winning the presidency in 1884 and 1888.
So, just how likely is a second Trump term?
2024’s still a bit of a way off, so it’s hard to know just what will happen (especially after the shock result in 2016), but there are some things that could give us an insight into the election.
The first, of course being Trump’s track record. After contesting the 2020 election, Trump called into question the validity of the election results, which saw him lose the popular vote by more than seven million votes, and the electoral college by 74 votes.
The tension in the US at the time boiled over when Trump supporters and far-right extremists breached the walls of the US Capitol on 6 January, 2021, causing five deaths, four suicides more than 100 injuries, nearly 1000 arrests, millions of dollars in damage, Donald Trump’s second impeachment and the displacement of the US political system.
The investigation into the riot is ongoing, and Trump has been summoned to testify before Congress, and although he’s denied any wrongdoing, his role in the crisis is still yet to be evaluated.
If found guilty of being involved, it could mean that he could be barred from running.
In terms of his actual political capital, Trump could be in trouble.
Not only did he lose the 2020 election, his role in the 2022 midterm election could be an insight into how people are now reacting to his political campaigns.
Trump endorsed several candidates in the midterms, and in crucial seats, it backfired.
Trump predicted a “big, beautiful red wave” that never came, as the candidates he endorsed, particularly Mehmet Oz (AKA Dr Oz) couldn’t secure office.
Trump’s also lost support from key Republican allies, chief of which is his former Vice-President and Running mate, Mike Pence.
“In the days ahead, I think there will be better choices.”
Pence is also rumoured to be considering his own run for the White House office in 2024 on the Republican, alongside former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Trump’s former protégé, Ron DeSantis, who’s just won a major re-election as the Florida Governor.
All three of those could be more popular choices than Trump in the Republican Primaries ahead of the election.
American history buffs will also know that former Presidents don’t tend to poll well after their retirement.
Several ex-Presidents have ran for re-election, including Martin Van Buren, Theodore Roosevelt, Herbert Hoover and Grover Cleveland, and only Cleveland managed to be successful.
Cleveland also won the popular vote in his losing election, something Trump was unable to do.
Looking at history might be fraught, however. We don’t yet know what 2024 will look like, and how Trump’s candidacy might differ from his runs in 2016 and 2020.
But with promises of “making America great again” and “draining the swamp” it seems like he’s drawing on the same rhetoric that won him popularity and the presidency in the first place.
With an approval rating of 53 per cent among Republicans, Trump still remains a popular, yet divisive figure who’s bound to have a major impact on American politics for years to come.
